Welcome back for week three of last week in AI. This has consistently gotten the most readership, so I'll provide as much as I can every Monday. Please let me know what else you’d like to see.
This week, From Good Tech / Bad Tech
Models & Capabilities
The drive for bigger, faster, and more specialized AI models continues. While capabilities advance, so do concerns about security and real-world utility.
New Models, Familiar Players: Amazon rolled out Nova Premier, Microsoft unveiled the smaller but supposedly potent Phi 4, and Baidu launched models aiming to undercut competitors on price. The focus remains on performance metrics, but the tangible benefits for everyday users are less clear.
Niche Focus: DeepSeek doubled down on math with Prover and Prover-V2, while JetBrains targeted developers with its Mellum coding model. Specialization marches on, but does it solve fundamental problems or just create more complex tools?
Exponential Growth... or Hype? Claims that AI can handle tasks twice as complex every few months fuel the hype cycle. Meanwhile, Nvidia's new tool for turning 3D scenes into AI images offers another avenue for generation, but raises questions about creative ownership and the value of synthetic content.
Security Theater & Lingering Doubts: Meta's LlamaFirewall aims to patch AI vulnerabilities, a tacit admission of the risks inherent in these systems. Researchers also found weaknesses in AlphaFold 3, a reminder that even celebrated AI breakthroughs aren't infallible. Amidst speculation about DeepSeek's R2, whispers suggest OpenAI might be retiring GPT-4, perhaps signaling a shift or simply the rapid obsolescence cycle in AI.
Industry and Business
Corporations are betting big on AI, forecasting astronomical revenues and pushing adoption, but the actual impact on workers and the focus on genuine human needs remain questionable.
Meta's Pivot: Abandoning the metaverse narrative, Meta is now all-in on AI. Boasting 1.2 billion Llama downloads, hosting LlamaCon to woo developers away from OpenAI, launching an API, and projecting $1.4 trillion in AI revenue by 2035 – it's a full-blown AI gold rush. But will this translate into better products for users or just more targeted ads and engagement loops?
State-Sponsored AI & Automation: China pushes for technological self-reliance, funneling investment into AI and robotics, seen in Shoucheng's car park robots and Ant Group's talent hunt. Xi Jinping's visit to Shanghai's AI incubator (SMC) underscores the national priority.
AI Everywhere? From Toyota and Waymo's autonomous vehicle plans (complete with a potential 'AI social network' for cars) to 20-foot construction robots, vehicle prototyping via digital twins, AI for climate-stressed supply chains, and even an AI 'care companion' in Danish hospitals, AI is being pitched as a solution for everything. The question remains whether these applications genuinely improve lives or primarily serve corporate efficiency and automation goals.
The Elusive AGI: Even as practical applications spread, the dream (or nightmare) of Artificial General Intelligence persists, with small European startups joining the chase.
Environmental and Financial Cost
Building the infrastructure for AI demands staggering resources, raising serious environmental concerns and questions about the sustainability of this technological path.
Trillions in Investment, Looming Constraints: Estimates suggest AI infrastructure spending could hit $8 trillion, while mega corporations like Microsoft already foresee capacity shortages. The build-out these companies say is necessary requires immense power, prompting efforts like Google funding electrician training.
Searching for Efficiency: While some startups explore building AI without data centers, others look to technologies like photonics or "AI Native" processing to optimize. Debates continue over whether AI's energy use is a real crisis or manageable, but the sheer scale of investment suggests significant environmental impact.
Chip Wars & Geopolitics: The hardware itself is a battleground, with Nvidia raising alarms about Huawei's capabilities, highlighting the geopolitical stakes intertwined with AI dominance.
Ethics and Societal Impact
As AI integration accelerates, the gap between utopian promises and unsettling realities widens, raising urgent questions about security, privacy, fairness, and the very nature of work.
New Avenues for Fraud & Attack: Realtime deepfake fraud is here, AI is poised to become a potent exploit coder, and AI-generated code risks poisoning the software supply chain through vulnerabilities like 'package confusion'. Nation-states like China are reportedly using AI to sharpen cyberattacks.
Ethical Minefields: An unauthorized AI persuasion experiment on Reddit users sparked outrage, highlighting the ethical vacuum in some AI research. Concerns about inherent model bias, the potential for AI to corrupt scientific peer review, the fairness of popular AI benchmarks, and the reliability of AI in critical human-in-the-loop scenarios (like medicine, where doctors fail to catch AI errors) persist.
Regulation vs. Reality: While companies like Anthropic push for tighter chip controls (clashing with Nvidia's interests), the legal system grapples with fundamental questions, like whether AI-generated output constitutes protected speech. Meanwhile, government adoption plows ahead, sometimes clumsily (SSA's training video), sometimes controversially (deploying AI agents via DOGE recruiters or tasking college students with AI-driven deregulation), and sometimes raising surveillance alarms (NYC's predictive subway cameras).
Jobs, Hype, and Normalization: Is AI revolutionizing work or just shifting tasks? Economists suggest generative AI isn't replacing jobs or hurting wages yet, and studies indicate time saved is often offset by new AI-related work. While some call for treating AI as "normal" technology (MIT Tech Review's take), the hype continues (tracked by the AI Hype Index), particularly around AI in software development, which brings both potential gains and significant risks. (MIT Tech Review also covered stereotypes and coding).
Research & Development
Fundamental research pushes AI into new domains, from pure mathematics to the search for life beyond Earth.
New Frontiers: DARPA wants AI to accelerate mathematics, while roboticists create swarms that mimic materials.
Scientific Discovery: AI is being used to 'explain' the behavior of sticky proteins linked to disease and even deployed as an AI 'scientist team' in the SETI effort. The focus is often on capability, with less discussion on the wisdom or long-term consequences of these applications. (Getting Real About AI Processors paper also discussed hardware).
Overall Sources for the week-
Survey Of Digital Twins and Other Prototyping Technologies for Vehicles
DARPA to 'radically' rev up mathematics research. And yes, with AI
DeepSeek speculation swirls online over Chinese AI start-up’s much-anticipated R2 model
Import AI 410: Eschatological AI Policy; Virology weapon test; $50m for distributed training
Researchers Secretly Ran a Massive, Unauthorized AI Persuasion Experiment on Reddit Users
Behold the Social Security Administration’s AI Training Video
Baidu offers new AI models with enhanced features, lower cost than DeepSeek’s products
AI-powered 20 foot robots coming for construction workers' jobs
AI-generated code could be a disaster for the software supply chain. Here’s why.
China is using AI to sharpen every link in its attack chain, FBI warns
Meta says its Llama AI models have been downloaded 1.2B times
Meta introduces Llama application programming interface to attract AI developers
Meta Launches LlamaFirewall Framework to Stop AI Jailbreaks, Injections, and Insecure Code
New York City wants subway cameras to predict ‘trouble’ before it happens
Chinese AI and robotics start-ups from AgiBot to XtalPi respond to Xi’s self-reliance call
Toyota and Waymo pledge to team up on a new autonomous vehicle platform
The end of an AI that shocked the world: OpenAI retires GPT-4
The Download: stereotypes in AI models, and the new age of coding
Anthropic suggests tweaks to proposed U.S. AI chip export controls
These Startups Are Building Advanced AI Models Without Data Centers
Generative AI is not replacing jobs or hurting wages at all, economists claim
The AI Hype Index: AI agent cyberattacks, racing robots, and musical models
This Chart Might Keep You From Worrying About AI’s Energy Use
STAT+: Doctors didn’t catch AI’s mistakes. What does that mean for human-in-the-loop?
First Amendment doesn’t just protect human speech, chatbot maker argues
AI Code Hallucinations Increase the Risk of ‘Package Confusion’ Attacks
DOGE Put a College Student in Charge of Using AI to Rewrite Regulations
Google is funding electrician training to help meet the power demands of AI
Anthropic calls for tougher GPU export controls as Nvidia's CEO implores Trump to spread the AI love
Meta forecasted it would make $1.4T in revenue from generative AI by 2035
The SMC: what to see at the Shanghai AI incubator visited by Xi Jinping
Microsoft’s most capable new Phi 4 AI model rivals the performance of far larger systems
AI software development: Productivity revolution or fraught with risk?
Swarm of 30 robots can 'flow like water' and harden up to support the weight of a person
Ant Group showcases its top AI researchers in bid to woo graduates in tight talent market
Researchers Say the Most Popular Tool for Grading AIs Unfairly Favors Meta, Google, OpenAI
Why car park operator Shoucheng is doubling down on China robotics investment
Exclusive: Danish supercomputer powers AI care ‘companion’ for hospitals
Nvidia raises concerns about Huawei’s growing AI chip capabilities with US lawmakers
The Climate Crisis Threatens Supply Chains. Manufacturers Hope AI Can Help
Self-driving cars can tap into 'AI-powered social network' to talk to each other while on the road
AI scientist ‘team’ joins the search for extraterrestrial life
A DOGE Recruiter Is Staffing a Project to Deploy AI Agents Across the US Government